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2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan

2045 MTP

The 2045 MTP lists all the highway, transit, and non-automobile transportation projects that the MPO plans to fund in the future. The 2045 MTP is to be developed from January 2016 through June 2017 and in partnership with the Triangle J Council of Government (TJCOG) and the Capital Area MPO (CAMPO).

Request for Public Comment

2045 MTP Goals and Objectives

The first step in planning for the 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan is to create a set of Goals and Objectives. It is important to understand that this document will drive the MPO’s policies and project decision-making process in the future. In addition, the MPO attaches performance measures to the Goals and Objectives that will help the MPO Board and the pubic assess the extent to which the region’s transportation system is meeting the Goals and Objectives.

This Webpage presents the process for developing the Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures. At this point, the public input process has ended but the MPO has not yet adopted the final document because development of the Performance Measures continues.

The MPO requested that the public review the draft Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures and provide feedback to the MPO. This public comment period was from Friday, February 12, 2016 through Friday, April 1, 2016. There are several options for participating, including:

www.surveymonkey.com/r/DCHCMPO-Goals
You can communicate your transportation values to the MPO by completing a short survey at the preceding link.

​Draft Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures

Public Workshop
Stop in anytime between 4 and 7 pm at the Durham Station Transportation Center (corner of W. Pettigrew St. and W. Chapel Hill St.) on Thursday, March 17 to learn more about your future transportation system and provide your comments on the Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures.

Public Hearing
You can provide feedback on the Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures to local elected officials (DCHC MPO Board) on Wednesday, March 9, 2016 at 9:00 AM in the Committee Room (2nd Floor of Durham City Hall, 101 City Hall Plaza). Persons with disabilities will be accommodated -- provisions must be requested at least 48 hours in advance of the meeting.

Contact
Comments and questions should be directed to:

Andy Henry, City of Durham, Transportation Department
101 City Hall Plaza
Durham, NC 27701
E-mail: andrew.henry@durhamnc.gov Phone:(919) 560-4366, ext. 36419

Background

The MPO forecasts socioeconomic data (SE Data), such as dwelling units, population and employment, to the year 2045 and uses that data as a key input into the travel demand model (called the Triangle Regional Model, or TRM). The process starts with the 2045 guide totals, which are county- level population and employment projections for the year 2045, and proceeds to the Community Visualization model that distributes the dwelling units and employment to particular parcels based on land availability and suitability. The following document will provide details of this process and the output:

2045 MTP Guide Totals
Community Visualization

Connect 2045 -- Scenarios

Different scenarios, or different ways that the region might be, are created under the name Connect 2045. More information on how and why these scenarios are created can be found here. This section present the output of the various scenarios as it becomes available.

​Community Plans
This scenario is based on the adopted local land use plans.

New household distribution map (2013-2045)
New employment distribution map (2013-2045)
County-level distribution tables (2013-2045)

AIM High

This scenario output is not yet available.

Deficiency Analysis

The icon above provides an interactive daily congestion map for the year 2045. See the information below under Congestion Maps for more information.

Background

​What is a Deficiency Analysis?

The concept is fairly simple. The analysis compares today’s travel conditions with that of a future year. Thus, the Deficiency Analysis shows staff, the MPO and the public where transportation investments in highways, transit and other modes are needed to address the future travel demands. It will guide the development and evaluation of the various transportation alternatives that will be considered in a subsequent step of the 2045 MTP development.

​What Future Year is Used?

The measures and maps are based on a travel demand model that estimates conditions in two different years:

​2013- This is 2013 population and employment using the existing transportation system of streets, transit, etc., and reflects the current travel conditions.

​2045 E+C- This is the estimated 2045 population and employment using the existing transportation system plus any projects that are committed to construction or implementation. “E+C” means “Existing plus Committed.” This “no build” scenario allows us to see where future deficiencies are to be expected.

What is the Next Step?

With the MPO’s Goals and Objectives in mind, staff will use the deficiency data to create several alternatives to meet the future travel demand. This Alternatives Analysis will be released to the public and will include public meetings and a hearing to help gather people’s comments.

2045 MTP Deficiency Analysis

The following link is a presentation on the Deficiency Analysis. This Web page provides the detailed tables and maps that comprise the Deficiency Analysis and presents the Socioeconomic Data (SE Data) used to generate the analysis.

Congestion Maps

The congestion maps estimate the level of congestion in the year 2045 if no additional transportation projects are implemented. This is often called the No Build Scenario. In this case, the travel demand model puts the trip demand for the 2045 population and 2045 employment on to the current transportation network that might also have a few additional approved projects (e.g., East End Connector and Alston Ave widening) that are close to beginning construction. The maps depict the level of congestion by dividing the traffic volume by the road capacity. So, if the road has 8,000 vehicle trips per hour and the road capacity is 10,000 vehicles; the V/C (volume to capacity value) will be 0.80. Note that the MPO's travel demand model uses a Level of Service (LOS) of "E," or the V/C = 1.0. Most motorists would experience LOS E as highly congested and the overall travel delay would be great especially in urban areas and those areas with intersections and driveways. Thus, most motorists would experience a V/C higher than 1 as highly congested (orange lines on the map), and a V/C higher than 1.2 as long delays (red lines on the map).

The thumbnail map at the top of this page provides an interactive daily congestion map.

​Afternoon Peak
The congestion maps below show the average V/C for both roadway directions for the afternoon peak hour (i.e., 5:30pm to 6:30pm. Roadways in which the V/C exceeds 1 are labeled with the actual V/C value.

​Daily
The congestion maps below show the daily V/C for each roadway. Roadways in which the V/C exceeds 1 are labeled with the actual V/C value.”

Travel Time

The table and maps below show the travel time between key destinations in the Triangle region in 2013 and 2045, and calculates the change in that travel time. These travel times are for the afternoon peak hour. The map shows the average travel time for the afternoon peak hour, the connector lines becoming a "hotter" color as the percentage increase in travel time from 2013 to 2045 becomes greater (i.e., congestion increases).

Isochrone Maps

An isochrone map shows lines that connect the points that have the same travel time from a specified point. The isochrone maps below show the travel time to key destinations in the Triangle region in fifteeen minute increments. The destinations are the downtowns or center of Durham, Chapel Hill, Raleigh and the Research Triangle Park.

Performance Measures

The Performance Measures are a broad set of calculations that provide an indicator of the mobility, trip volume, mode choice and congestion in the overall transportation system. The measures are not specific to a travel corridor or transportation project but are useful for broad comparisons of different transportation system alternatives. The first table below compares the 2013 and the 2045 Existing plus Committed (E+C, also known as the No Build) models for the DCHC MPO. The remaining tables provide the same data at the county level.

SE Data

The Triangle J Council of Governments (TJCOG), in partnership with the MPO, forecasts Socioeconomic Data (SE Data; such as dwelling units, population and employment) to the year 2045. This forecast is used as key input into the Triangle Regional Model (TRM -- the regional travel demand model). The TRM is a principal tool for identifying the future transportation deficiencies in our area and helping to propose transportation improvements to address those deficiencies. This model is used for long range plans, major transit and transportation studies and transportation project environmental analyses.

The guide totals document below shows the expected population and employment growth from 2013 through 2045 for Triangle counties. These guide totals are input to a land use model called Community Visualization that uses a set of rules and database of available land to geographically distribute the population and employment. The two set of maps show the forecasted distribution for households and employment by MPO and county. Finally, the distribution tables show the detailed household and employment growth capacity in each county and how the guide totals were distributed.